To recap, a bunch of Iraq polls fielded by D3 Systems and its partner KA Research Limited contain data that appear to be fabricated. In particular, there is a list of supervisors who consistently preside over non-credible interviews. Steve Koczela and I dubbed these the “focal supervisors” since we focused our attention on them in our original paper on this subject.
We have known for a long time that D3/KA fielded a large number of surveys in Iraq and that we only had access to a few of them. This changed recently. when Steve’s Freedom of Information Request to the US State Department came through, providing us with a mass of new Iraq polls. Some of these were fielded by D3/KA and some were fielded by other companies. This embarrassment of riches enables all sorts of new tests and comparisons. I have only scratched the surface of the gold but I can report that lack of credibility of the D3/KA data screams off of the computer screen.
Let’s take a peak at two polls that ask exactly the same questions and were both fielded in April of 2006, one by D3/KA and the other by a company called the Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies (ICRSS).
Before looking at some numbers it is worth asking ourselves why the State Department Commissioned two different companies to administer an identical questionnaire simultaneously? The only reason I can think of is that people in the State Department were suspicious of one of the companies.
In any case, for this short blog post let’s just look at one battery of questions on the availability of various services. We compare the following two things:
- ICRSS in the regions covered by the focal supervisors in the comparable D3/KA survey:
- The focal supervisors in the D3/KA survey.
Of course, the two surveys should yield roughly the same answers since I hold the zone fixed in the comparisons.
The questions take the following form:
Q3_1: Please tell me whether the following services for your neighborhood [in the quarter in which you live] over the past month have been very good, good, poor, very poor or not available. … Water supply
The same question is then asked for electricity, telephone service, etc.
Have a scroll through the table below:
|Telephone Service (land line)|
|Telephone Service (mobile)|
|Conditions of Roads|
This is what your face looks like now:
In the D3/KA survey:
- For six of the ten services exactly 245 rate the availability as “poor” and exactly 198 rate the availability as very “poor”
- In two of the four cases for which the split is not 245-198 the breakdown is exactly 217-24-202
- Despite the overwhelming preponderance of answers of “poor” and “very poor” nobody ever answers that a service is “unavailable”.
- There are zero answers of “very good” and “don’t know.”
The above points easily condemn the D3/KA survey to the dustbin of lies but it’s a piece of cake to come up with more.
- For four services the most common answer is “good” for ICRSS yet zero people give this answer for D3/KA.
- ICRSS always has some responses of “unavailable” and “very good” but D3/KA always has zero people giving these answers.
This is not a judgement call. It is blatantly obvious that the D3/KA data are fabricated.