More Evidence of Fabrication in D3 Polls in Iraq: Part 1

Veteran readers know that I have posted a lot of this subject, including here, here, here, here , here and here.

To recap, a bunch of Iraq polls fielded by D3 Systems and its partner KA Research Limited contain data that appear to be fabricated.  In particular, there is a list of supervisors who consistently preside over non-credible interviews.  Steve Koczela and I dubbed these the “focal supervisors” since we focused our attention on them in our original paper on this subject.

We have known for a long time that D3/KA fielded a large number of surveys in Iraq and that we only had access to a few of them.  This changed recently. when Steve’s Freedom of Information Request to the US State Department came through, providing us with a mass of new Iraq polls.  Some of these were fielded by D3/KA and some were fielded by other companies.  This embarrassment of riches enables all sorts of new tests and comparisons.  I have only scratched the surface of the gold but I can report that lack of credibility of the D3/KA data screams off of the computer screen.

Let’s take a peak at two polls that ask exactly the same questions and were both fielded in April of 2006, one by D3/KA and the other by a company called the Iraq Center for Research and Strategic Studies (ICRSS).

Before looking at some numbers it is worth asking ourselves why the State Department Commissioned two different companies to administer an identical questionnaire simultaneously?  The only reason I can think of is that people in the State Department were suspicious of one of the companies.

In any case, for this short blog post let’s just look at one battery of questions on the availability of various services.  We compare the following two things:

  1.  ICRSS in the regions covered by the focal supervisors  in the comparable D3/KA survey:
  2. The focal supervisors in the D3/KA survey.

Of course, the two surveys should yield roughly the same answers since I hold the zone fixed in the comparisons.

The questions take the following form:

Q3_1:  Please tell me whether the following services for your neighborhood [in the quarter in which you live] over the past month have been very good, good, poor, very poor or not available. … Water supply

The same question is then asked for electricity, telephone service, etc.

Have a scroll through the table below:

Water Supply
Focals ICRSS Survey
Very Good 0 189
Good 0 977
Poor 245 466
Very Poor 198 128
Not Available 0 3
Don’t Know 0 0
NA 0 8
Electricity Supply
Focals ICRSS Survey
Very Good 0 11
Good 0 224
Poor 245 626
Very Poor 198 822
Not Available 0 80
Don’t Know 0 0
NA 0 8
Telephone Service (land line)
Focals ICRSS Survey
Very Good 0 71
Good 0 608
Poor 245 433
Very Poor 198 571
Not Available 0 36
Don’t Know 0 40
NA 0 12
Telephone Service (mobile)
Focals ICRSS Survey
Very Good 0 266
Good 0 1105
Poor 245 185
Very Poor 198 142
Not Available 0 40
Don’t Know 0 21
NA 0 12
Garbage Collection
Focals ICRSS Survey
Very Good 0 57
Good 0 608
Poor 245 667
Very Poor 198 373
Not Available 0 53
Don’t Know 0 0
NA 0 13
Sewage Disposal
Focals ICRSS Survey
Very Good 0 64
Good 0 574
Poor 91 662
Very Poor 352 370
Not Available 0 87
Don’t Know 0 0
NA 0 14
Conditions of Roads
Focals ICRSS Survey
Very Good 0 26
Good 0 532
Poor 148 769
Very Poor 295 388
Not Available 0 39
Don’t Know 0 5
NA 0 12
Traffic Management
Focals Nonfocals
Very Good 0 111
Good 0 834
Poor 245 505
Very Poor 198 207
Not Available 0 58
Don’t Know 0 35
NA 0 21
Police Presence
Focals ICRSS Survey
Very Good 0 255
Good 217 948
Poor 24 390
Very Poor 202 124
Not Available 0 23
Don’t Know 0 10
NA 0 16
Army Presence
Focals ICRSS Survey
Very Good 0 250
Good 217 834
Poor 24 371
Very Poor 202 171
Not Available 0 109
Don’t Know 0 19
NA 0 17

 

This is what your face looks like now:

S1E3_your-favourite-doctor-600x347
What????

 

 

 

 

 

In the D3/KA survey:

  • For six of the ten services exactly 245 rate the availability as “poor” and exactly 198 rate the availability as very “poor”
  • In two of the four cases for which the split is not 245-198 the breakdown is exactly 217-24-202
  • Despite the overwhelming preponderance of answers of “poor” and “very poor” nobody ever answers that a service is “unavailable”.
  • There are zero answers of “very good” and “don’t know.”

The above points easily condemn the D3/KA survey to the dustbin of lies but it’s a piece of cake to come up with more.

  • For four services the most common answer is “good” for ICRSS yet zero people give this answer for D3/KA.
  • ICRSS always has some responses of “unavailable” and “very good” but D3/KA always has zero people giving these answers.

This is not a judgement call.  It is blatantly obvious that the D3/KA data are fabricated.

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2 thoughts on “More Evidence of Fabrication in D3 Polls in Iraq: Part 1

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