Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 6

This is the latest installment in a series that considers the statistical report done for the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), Silvio Rendon’s critique of this statistical report and a reply to Rendon from Daniel Manrique Vallier and Patrick Ball (MVB) who worked on the TRC statistical report.  The present post continues to discuss the MVB reply. (Note … Continue reading Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 6

Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 5

I'll start this post by reacting to some interesting comments to part 4 of this series which was, you may be surprised to learn,  preceded by part 1, part 2 and part 3.  I'll assume that readers have some familiarity with these posts but I'll also try to go slowly and remind readers of things … Continue reading Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 5

Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 4

This is the fourth post in a series on the statistical report of the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) , the critique of that report published by Sylvio Rendon, the reply to Rendon from two authors of the statistical report and, eventually, Rendon's rejoinder which has not yet been published.  My earlier posts are … Continue reading Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 4

Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 3

This post continues a series that started here and continued here.  The earlier posts covered Sylvio Rendon's critique of the statistical report of Peru's Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC).  Rendon argues that the two striking and central statistical claims made by the TRC are both wrong.  These claims are:  The true number of deaths in … Continue reading Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 3

Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 2

This is a follow up to last week's post about new estimates,  published by Silvio Rendon, of human losses in the war in Peru, 1980 to 2000. Important context is that the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) of Peru published estimates that were quite surprising in at least two respects:  The TRC's estimate for the total number … Continue reading Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 2

Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 1

Silvio Rendon just published an important new paper that challenges statistical work done for the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) of Peru on violent deaths in the Peruvian conflict, 1980 to 2000. I can only scratch the surface in one post.  So I plan to focus on a few central points and elaborate later.  Two authors of … Continue reading Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 1

A New Entry into the Decline of War Debate: Yes, there has been a decline

I've just posted a new paper with Stijn van Weezel on the decline-of-war debate.  This is part of an ongoing discussion  which involves such people as Steven Pinker, Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Aaron Clauset. Here is our abstract: For the past 70 years, there has been a downward trend in the size of wars, but the idea … Continue reading A New Entry into the Decline of War Debate: Yes, there has been a decline

The Hurricane Maria Death Toll Numbers: An Extension of my Piece in The Conversation

I just published a piece on the Hurricane Maria death toll numbers.   Space is always limited with such pieces so I'll extend it a little bit here. Excess deaths estimates tend to have really wide uncertainty intervals and the Harvard study on the Hurricane Maria death toll is no exception.  The reason for such extreme … Continue reading The Hurricane Maria Death Toll Numbers: An Extension of my Piece in The Conversation