Forecasting World War III

Hello again.

I apologize for going silent for so long.  I felt overwhelmed at the end of our teaching term, transitioned into family fun and obligations and then have been unconscionably slow getting out of the starting blocks since the new year began.   I’ll now become active again, although I’ll warm up by drawing attention to a few things already in the public domain.

Please have a look at this short article I wrote for Significance Magazine.  It is an outgrowth of an earlier article I wrote on an ongoing discussion/argument between Steven Pinker and Nicholas Nassim Taleb. (By the way, here is a nice recent article on Pinker-Taleb, taking a very pro-Pinker stance.)

PS – I’m an economist, not a statistician, but Significance still wanted me to write for their “Ask a Statistician” column.