US Air Strikes on Hospitals

Recently I commented on a list of eleven US air attacks on civilian targets.  The purpose of the exercise was to gain insight into the likelihood that the strike on the MSF hospital in Kunduz was intentional, i.e., done with knowledge that the facility was a hospital. A weakness of using these eleven incidents for …

Scoring US Attacks on Civilian Facilities

This is a follow up to my article about the attack on the MSF hospital in Kunduz that I just published on Stats.org. To support the analysis I went through every US attack on civilian facilities listed in this article and scored them for how strong I judge the evidence to be that they were …

My Second Article on the Attack on the MSF Hospital in Kunduz

I have a new article up at Stats.org about the US attack on the MSF hospital in Kunduz. After writing this earlier article I found myself still thinking about the incident - hence the second one. People reading both will wonder why I wrote in the first one that we shouldn't obsess over the intentionality question and …

Department of Corrections: Mike Spagat Edition

Hello old friends.  Once again I need to apologize for neglecting you but I  plan to atone for my sins by flooding you with interesting stuff over the next few weeks. I've been reading the new book by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner on "Superforecasting".  It is spectacularly good and I will definitely come back …

The Air Attack on the MSF Hospital

Please go here to see my article on this subject. Over the next few weeks I plan to do a few posts in other places.  But this space will remain a one-stop shop for all my blogging.

World War II Deaths Visualization

Everyone should watch this film by Neil Halloran which manages to convey at least some sense of the scale and proportions of human losses in World War II.  Hopefully, others will follow in the footsteps of this pioneering work. My main nitpick is that many viewers may walk away thinking that the true World War II figures …