L’Affaire Burnham: Ten Years Later

I just gave this presentation at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in Toronto. The title of the talk is taken from Richard Kulka's Presidential Address to AAPOR.  Back in 2009 AAPOR censured Gilbert Burnham of Johns Hopkins University for refusing to disclose basic information about his methodology for … Continue reading L’Affaire Burnham: Ten Years Later

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Fake Data and the War in Iraq

Here are the slides from a talk I gave yesterday at RHUL's PIR department. It pulls together many threads that I've developed on the blog but I won't give the links here since they are embedded in the document.

The Hurricane Maria Death Toll Numbers: An Extension of my Piece in The Conversation

I just published a piece on the Hurricane Maria death toll numbers.   Space is always limited with such pieces so I'll extend it a little bit here. Excess deaths estimates tend to have really wide uncertainty intervals and the Harvard study on the Hurricane Maria death toll is no exception.  The reason for such extreme … Continue reading The Hurricane Maria Death Toll Numbers: An Extension of my Piece in The Conversation

A Debate about Excess War Deaths: Part II

My rejoinder (with Stijn van Weezel) to Hagopian et al is out. Hooray!   See this earlier post for background. Please have a read.  It's short and sweet.  Here's the abstract: Spagat and van Weezel have re-analysed the data of the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study (UCIMS) and found fatal weaknesses in the headline-grabbing estimate of 500,000 excess … Continue reading A Debate about Excess War Deaths: Part II