Predicting the Size Distribution of Violent Events in War

I gave this presentation yesterday at the UK Ministry of Defence.  It is based on work in progress with my former student Stijn Van Weezel and Neil Johnson of the University of Miami. This continues a long-standing research programme I've had with Neil and many other people for more than a decade.  The high points …

D3 Responds but not on Substance

Natalie Jackson has a nice article for HUFFPOST POLITICS about the attempt by a survey research company (D3 Systems) to censor criticism of their work by threatening to sue me. She quotes Matthew Warshaw of D3 saying: “The only reason we went the legal route was because [Spagat and Koczela] sent their work to our …

Censorship and Self-Censorship in Research on the Iraq War

I just set up a web page on the title theme for this post. There you will find my paper "Censorship and Self-Censorship in Research on the Iraq War."  It is short but if you only have five minutes to spare then just read the slides from the presentation I  made yesterday at the conference of the …