Predicting the Size Distribution of Violent Events in War

I gave this presentation yesterday at the UK Ministry of Defence.  It is based on work in progress with my former student Stijn Van Weezel and Neil Johnson of the University of Miami. This continues a long-standing research programme I've had with Neil and many other people for more than a decade.  The high points … Continue reading Predicting the Size Distribution of Violent Events in War

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D3 Responds but not on Substance

Natalie Jackson has a nice article for HUFFPOST POLITICS about the attempt by a survey research company (D3 Systems) to censor criticism of their work by threatening to sue me. She quotes Matthew Warshaw of D3 saying: “The only reason we went the legal route was because [Spagat and Koczela] sent their work to our … Continue reading D3 Responds but not on Substance