Predicting Armed Conflict Events

Zee Media is launching a news channel and web cite and, somehow or other, I wound up as featured in their web site launch. Here is the link. Although I find it a bit harrowing to watch myself so much on camera I would say that Zee came up with an interesting and original way to present …

Chilcot on Civilian Casualties: Part 4

In October of 2004 The Lancet published a paper by Roberts et al. that estimated the number of excess deaths for the first year and a half of the Iraq war using data from a new survey they had just conducted.  (Readers wanting a refresher course on the concept of excess deaths  can go here.) …

Chilcot on Civilian Casualties: Part III

Hello everybody. Today I just link to my piece in The Conversation.

Chilcot on Civilian Casualties: Part II

After posting yesterday on Chicot and civilian casualties I'm finding it no easier to pick my second subject from this rich, but frustrating, chapter. So I've spun my random selectometer again and landed on the attempt to assassinate "Chemical Ali" aka Ali Hassan al-Majid. The heading for this section in the report is "Case study of a bombing …

Chilcot on Civilian Casualties: Part 1

The chapter on civilian casualties in the Chilcot report is stuffed with interesting material to the point that I don't know where to start.  So I guess I'll make a somewhat random choice and start with the internal UK discussion on whether or not to compile and release data on civilian casualties in the Iraq …

Chilcot – Brexit Parallels

The release of the Chilcot report is so soon after the Brexit vote that I can't help comparing the two. And I know this is strange but I notice several surprisingly close resemblances between the Brexit vote and the decisions (both of the UK and the US) to invade Iraq:  Both were genuinely dramatic actions …

Chilcot Cometh

At long last the Chilcot report is out and I'm proud to announce that I've already read 0.000019783% of it. So far I have fixated mainly on the issue for which I threw down a marker earlier on the blog - Tony Blair's use of bogus child mortality figures before the Inquiry to justify the …

The New US Policy on Civilian Casualties in Military Operations

I posted recently on the expected announcement from the Obama administration about civilians killed in US air attacks.  You can read a brief summary of this release here.  The best in-depth analysis I've seen is this article by Jack Serle. I'm still happy with my original post now that the announcement is out .  However, I wish …

A Step Towards Casualty Recording in US Drone Strikes

According to this story President Obama is expected to release an official number for civilians killed in US drone strikes in Pakistan, Yemen and Africa.  I wouldn't go so far as to say that this glass is half full but it is better than nothing if you're really thirsty. What are the shortcomings of the predicted …