More Evidence of Fabrication in D3 Polls in Iraq: Part 2

On Tuesday I provided some eye-popping comparisons on one Iraq survey fielded by D3/KA against another Iraq survey fielded by another company at exactly the same time.  In light of this evidence any reasonable person has to agree that the D3/KA data are fabricated.  Nevertheless, today I give you a different window into the same …

More Evidence of Fabrication in D3 Polls in Iraq: Part 1

Veteran readers know that I have posted a lot of this subject, including here, here, here, here , here and here. To recap, a bunch of Iraq polls fielded by D3 Systems and its partner KA Research Limited contain data that appear to be fabricated.  In particular, there is a list of supervisors who consistently preside over non-credible …

Deep Roots Update

After hitting "publish" on my last post I decided to surf around a bit and quickly stumbled onto Steven Pinker's response to John Horgan on war.. I'm happy to report that I don't feel a need rush out any corrections/changes to my piece.  But definitely read the Pinker piece which brings into play a wealth of …

Does the Deep Roots Theory of War Encourage Fatalism about War?

Something weird happened just when I stopped checking my favourite twiterati. First there was an article by John Horgan.  Then suddenly there was this, this, this and probably much more, all saying that Horgan's wrong about everything. Maybe enough is enough.  Michael Shermer already has a good rebuttal to what Horgan wrote about war.   Still, I …

War Death Estimates that are Lighter than Air

I'm in the middle of reexamining the data collected by the University Collaborative Iraq Mortality Study (UCIMS) (This is joint work with my former student Stijn Van Weezel.) The number of excess deaths estimated by the UCIMS is 405,000, 461,000, 500,000, more than 500,000.... well, that's the point....it's not clear exactly what the UCIMS estimate is but it …

UK Charity Commission Grants Charitable Status to Every Casualty

Every Casualty (for which I'm on the Board) is now officially a charity. The UK Charity Commission sets up hurdles for supplicants to cross to make them worthy of the Commission's approval. This is a solemn process that builds strength. Some requirements can seem pointless when you're doing them but after finishing you can't help thinking that …

Where do your Data Come From?

This picture is a wonderful opener to an undergraduate seminar.  The story is that the great statistician Abraham Wald collected data on the placements of bullet holes on planes returning from World War II missions.  He made a little dot on a picture representation of a plane for each bullet hole observed on an actual plane.  As …

The Iraq Sanctions Myth Rears its Ugly Head at Scripps College

This unusually interesting article just appeared in the the Los Angeles Times (coming to me via Michael Shermer). The obvious angle is the spectacle of protesters at one women's college (Scripps) attempting to follow the  path of another (Smith) in disinviting a female commencement speaker (Madeleine Albright) who had shattered gender barriers in a male-dominated …

Great Opportunity to Join the Iraq Body Count Team

Hello everyone. I had a sudden pile up of distractions.  My students take their final exam tomorrow and, bless them, have loads of questions.  I'm also in the middle of a trip.  But I will get back into blogging this week. First, I'd like to alert people to a unique chance that could really be …

Final Report on the Kunduz Air Strike

I've already written a lot about the Kunduz Air Strike and could hardly fail to comment on the just-released report of the US military on this horrible incident. My first comment is actually a question. Where exactly is the report?  I can't find it online. Was it just released in hard copy to some journalists? …