Predicting Armed Conflict Events

Zee Media is launching a news channel and web cite and, somehow or other, I wound up as featured in their web site launch. Here is the link. Although I find it a bit harrowing to watch myself so much on camera I would say that Zee came up with an interesting and original way to present …

Forecasting World War III – An Exchange of Letters

I'm sure that this reminder of my article in Significance  will awaken warm memories in many of you. In it, I used an article of Pasquale Cirrilo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb to help me make my case.  I think that the Cirillo-Taleb paper is quite interesting.  However, it is not in any way a shoot-down of …

Mystics and Statistics Blog

This is a great blog that should definitely interest my readers.  (Full disclosure - I'm hoping to get some funding to work with the people writing the blog.) This is the blog of the Dupuy Institute, founded by the extraordinarily prolific military historian, Trevor N. Dupuy. Dupuy was a pioneer in the quantitative analysis of …

Predicting the Size Distribution of Violent Events in War

I gave this presentation yesterday at the UK Ministry of Defence.  It is based on work in progress with my former student Stijn Van Weezel and Neil Johnson of the University of Miami. This continues a long-standing research programme I've had with Neil and many other people for more than a decade.  The high points …