L’Affaire Burnham: Ten Years Later

I just gave this presentation at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in Toronto. The title of the talk is taken from Richard Kulka's Presidential Address to AAPOR.  Back in 2009 AAPOR censured Gilbert Burnham of Johns Hopkins University for refusing to disclose basic information about his methodology for …

The Statistical Estimates of Peru’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission are Really Bad: Part 2

Back to blogging after diverting my energy in recent weeks to putting out a few fires. I'll assume here that you've read the first post of this new series.  So you know that overfitting is a terminal problem for the Shining Path (SP) estimates published in the statistical report of Peru's Truth and Reconciliation Commission …