After a long silence I'm back. Over the last few months my time has been eaten up by the preparation of a new free online course: Survival Statistics: Secrets for Demystifying Numbers Please have a look! Now that this is up and running I plan to do few regular blog posts in the near future. … Continue reading My Second Free Online Course Has Just Launched!
Today I return to Peru. If you're not up to speed on this discussion please go back to post 1 of the present series. I could include this post in either this series, this series or this series. But I think it works best within my first Peru series because the present post covers an … Continue reading Important New Violent Death Estimates for the War in Peru with Implications Beyond just Peru: Part 7
This post continues my series on Silvio Rendon's rejoinder to the reply of Daniel Manrique-Vallier and Patrick Ball (MVB) to Silvio Rendon's critique of the statistical work of Peru's Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC). OK that's complicated so how about this? The present series covers a second paper by Rendon that definitively shreds the TRC's … Continue reading The Statistical Estimates of Peru’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission are Really Bad: Part 3
I just gave this presentation at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) in Toronto. The title of the talk is taken from Richard Kulka's Presidential Address to AAPOR. Back in 2009 AAPOR censured Gilbert Burnham of Johns Hopkins University for refusing to disclose basic information about his methodology for … Continue reading L’Affaire Burnham: Ten Years Later
Back to blogging after diverting my energy in recent weeks to putting out a few fires. I'll assume here that you've read the first post of this new series. So you know that overfitting is a terminal problem for the Shining Path (SP) estimates published in the statistical report of Peru's Truth and Reconciliation Commission … Continue reading The Statistical Estimates of Peru’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission are Really Bad: Part 2
Silvio Rendon's powerful rejoinder on the statistical work of Peru's Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) is finally out. This is a big development so I'm starting a brand new series to cover it. Of course, this new series is related to the earlier one. But I'll strive to make the present series self-contained so you can start here if … Continue reading The Statistical Estimates of Peru’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission are Really Bad: Part 1
This is my second post with Josh Dougherty of Iraq Body Count (IBC). We asserted in the first one that Carpenter, Fuller and Roberts (CFR) did a terrible job of matching violent events in Iraq, 2004-2009, between the IBC dataset and the SIGACTs dataset of the US military and its coalition partners. In particular, CFR … Continue reading The Perils and Pitfalls of Matching War Deaths Across Lists: Part 2