My Free Online Course is Ready and About to Launch!

Hello everyone. I haven't posted for a while, mainly because I've been completely swamped writing with creating my free online course  which launches on Monday.   The course is on exactly the sort of material I cover on the blog so if you're following the blog you should seriously consider signing up for the course.  It's … Continue reading My Free Online Course is Ready and About to Launch!

Secret Data Sunday – AAPOR Investigates the Trump-Clinton Polling Miss Using Data you Can’t See

The long-awaited report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) on the performance of polling in the Trump-Clinton race is out.  You will see that this material is less of a stretch for the blog than it might seem to be at first glance and I plan a second post on it. Today … Continue reading Secret Data Sunday – AAPOR Investigates the Trump-Clinton Polling Miss Using Data you Can’t See

I’ve Done Something or Other and Say that 470,000 People were Killed in Syria – Would you Like to Interview Me?

Let's go back to February of 2016 when the New York Times ran this headline: Death Toll from War in Syria now 470,000, Group Finds The headline is more conservative than a caption in the same article which reads: At least [my emphasis] 470,000 Syrians have died as a result of the war, according to the … Continue reading I’ve Done Something or Other and Say that 470,000 People were Killed in Syria – Would you Like to Interview Me?

Mismeasuring Deaths in Iraq: Addendum on Confidence Interval Calculations

In my last post I used a combination of bootstrapping and educated guesswork to find  confidence intervals for violent deaths in Iraq based on the data from the Roberts et al. survey.  (The need for guesswork arose because the authors have not been forthcoming with their data.) Right after this went up a reader contacted me and … Continue reading Mismeasuring Deaths in Iraq: Addendum on Confidence Interval Calculations

Chilcot on Civilian Casualties: Part 5

This post continues my coverage of the three reports (one, two, three) written by UK government experts on the Roberts et al. 2004 article claiming that the 2003 invasion of Iraq caused a very large number of deaths.  According to the abstract of the paper: We estimate that 98,000 more deaths than expected (8,000-194,000) happened after the … Continue reading Chilcot on Civilian Casualties: Part 5