The Colombia Referendum and the Magic 50% Threshold

This is a follow-up to the article I wrote with Neil Johnson on the Colombia peace referendum. I learned a lot from the comments that were posted both for the original write-up and on the blog of Andrew Gelman.  This comment, in particular, seems important to me: Dzhaughnsays: October 5, 2016 at 12:17 pm The …

Article on the Colombian Referendum

Please have a look at this new article on Colombia's peace referendum that I've just written with my long-time co-author Neil Johnson. The point is that there are many sources of statistical error in the counting process for the referendum to the point where it would be more reasonable to call it a draw than …